Playoff Scenarios
Top 6 make the playoffs; the top 2 get a first-round bye.
Playoff Picture
| # | Team | Record | Playoffs | Status | Wins to Clinch | Losses to Be Out | Playoff odds by final wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | S Sam's Town |
4-1 | 98.0% | In the hunt | 8 | — | 8W97% 9W100% 10W100% 11W100% 12W100% 13W100% |
| 2 | B ButtHoleTrolls |
5-0 | 98.0% | In the hunt | 7 | — | 8W95% 9W100% 10W100% 11W100% 12W100% 13W100% |
| 3 | T Three Stripe Life |
3-2 | 87.0% | In the hunt | 9 | — | 6W16% 7W74% 8W99% 9W100% 10W100% 11W100% |
| 4 | K K-Bo Ghosts |
3-2 | 86.6% | In the hunt | 9 | — | 6W5% 7W58% 8W97% 9W100% 10W100% 11W100% |
| 5 | B Beats by JJ |
2-3 | 76.4% | In the hunt | — | 9 | 5W0% 6W17% 7W67% 8W97% 9W100% 10W100% |
| 6 | J J-Rod the Bod |
3-2 | 49.4% | In the hunt | 9 | — | 5W0% 6W4% 7W46% 8W93% 9W100% 10W100% |
| 7 | C Cream of the Crops |
3-2 | 45.9% | In the hunt | 9 | — | 4W0% 5W0% 6W4% 7W43% 8W91% 9W100% 10W100% |
| 8 | R Reading Dwayne Bowe |
2-3 | 27.3% | In the hunt | — | 9 | 4W0% 5W0% 6W4% 7W48% 8W94% 9W100% |
| 9 | S Straight Bums Homie |
2-3 | 19.2% | In the hunt | — | 9 | 3W0% 4W0% 5W0% 6W3% 7W44% 8W93% |
| 10 | T The Sharknado |
1-4 | 8.2% | In the hunt | — | 8 | 3W0% 4W0% 5W0% 6W2% 7W32% 8W97% |
| 11 | C Captain Scurve |
1-4 | 3.5% | In the hunt | — | 8 | 2W0% 3W0% 4W0% 5W0% 6W1% 7W42% |
| 12 | M Make-A-Wish Project |
1-4 | 0.8% | In the hunt | — | 8 | 1W0% 2W0% 3W0% 4W0% 5W0% 6W2% |
In the simulations the last playoff spot takes about 7.3 wins. "Playoff odds by final wins" shows how often each win total gets a team in (chips for totals that happen in under 3% of simulations are hidden). "Wins to Clinch" and "Losses to Be Out" are strict bounds: they only count when no combination of other results could change it, ignoring head-to-head and tiebreakers, so they stay large until late in the season.
Schedule Strength
| # | Team | Opp. Avg Score | Expected Wins Left | Toughest Game | Easiest Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RReading Dwayne Bowe |
112.4 | 4.1 | Wk 7 vs K-Bo Ghosts (25%) | Wk 8 vs Make-A-Wish Project (73%) |
| 2 | JJ-Rod the Bod |
112.3 | 4.1 | Wk 10 vs Three Stripe Life (28%) | Wk 14 vs Make-A-Wish Project (71%) |
| 3 | CCaptain Scurve |
111.9 | 3.3 | Wk 10 vs Sam's Town (25%) | Wk 8 vs The Sharknado (49%) |
| 4 | TThree Stripe Life |
111.8 | 5.4 | Wk 8 vs K-Bo Ghosts (42%) | Wk 6 vs Reading Dwayne Bowe (75%) |
| 5 | CCream of the Crops |
111.3 | 3.9 | Wk 8 vs Sam's Town (25%) | Wk 6 vs Captain Scurve (63%) |
| 6 | MMake-A-Wish Project |
111.1 | 2.5 | Wk 9 vs Beats by JJ (10%) | Wk 7 vs Cream of the Crops (45%) |
| 7 | SStraight Bums Homie |
108.9 | 3.7 | Wk 11 vs K-Bo Ghosts (24%) | Wk 10 vs Make-A-Wish Project (72%) |
| 8 | TThe Sharknado |
108.2 | 4.1 | Wk 7 vs Sam's Town (24%) | Wk 11 vs Make-A-Wish Project (68%) |
| 9 | BButtHoleTrolls |
107.9 | 5.2 | Wk 14 vs Three Stripe Life (40%) | Wk 10 vs The Sharknado (71%) |
| 10 | BBeats by JJ |
106.3 | 5.8 | Wk 12 vs Three Stripe Life (48%) | Wk 9 vs Make-A-Wish Project (90%) |
| 11 | KK-Bo Ghosts |
105.8 | 5.6 | Wk 6 vs The Sharknado (47%) | Wk 11 vs Straight Bums Homie (76%) |
| 12 | SSam's Town |
101.5 | 6.2 | Wk 9 vs Three Stripe Life (51%) | Wk 12 vs Make-A-Wish Project (83%) |
Ranked hardest first. Opp. Avg Score is the average expected score (ESPN projections, best lineup) of the opponents a team still has to face; Expected Wins Left adds up its chance in each remaining game.
Remaining Schedule
| Team | Wk 6 | Wk 7 | Wk 8 | Wk 9 | Wk 10 | Wk 11 | Wk 12 | Wk 13 | Wk 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSam's Town |
@Str 68% | The 76% | Cre 75% | Thr 51% | Cap 75% | @But 59% | Mak 83% | @J-R 71% | @Rea 64% |
| BButtHoleTrolls |
@Mak 69% | @Bea 49% | @J-R 62% | Cre 66% | @The 71% | Sam 41% | Rea 55% | Cap 71% | @Thr 40% |
| TThree Stripe Life |
Rea 75% | Str 71% | K-B 42% | @Sam 49% | J-R 72% | @Cap 58% | Bea 52% | @Cre 60% | But 60% |
| KK-Bo Ghosts |
The 47% | Rea 75% | @Thr 58% | @J-R 55% | Bea 51% | @Str 76% | @Cap 72% | @Mak 69% | Cre 58% |
| BBeats by JJ |
J-R 72% | But 51% | Str 68% | @Mak 90% | @K-B 49% | @Rea 70% | @Thr 48% | @The 64% | @Cap 73% |
| JJ-Rod the Bod |
@Bea 28% | @Cap 53% | But 38% | K-B 45% | @Thr 28% | @Cre 54% | Str 61% | Sam 29% | @Mak 71% |
| CCream of the Crops |
@Cap 63% | Mak 55% | @Sam 25% | @But 34% | @Rea 38% | J-R 46% | @The 50% | Thr 40% | @K-B 42% |
| RReading Dwayne Bowe |
@Thr 25% | @K-B 25% | Mak 73% | @The 60% | Cre 62% | Bea 30% | @But 45% | @Str 52% | Sam 36% |
| SStraight Bums Homie |
Sam 32% | @Thr 29% | @Bea 32% | Cap 53% | Mak 72% | K-B 24% | @J-R 39% | Rea 48% | @The 46% |
| TThe Sharknado |
@K-B 53% | @Sam 24% | @Cap 51% | Rea 40% | But 29% | Mak 68% | Cre 50% | Bea 36% | Str 54% |
| CCaptain Scurve |
Cre 37% | J-R 47% | The 49% | @Str 47% | @Sam 25% | Thr 42% | K-B 28% | @But 29% | Bea 27% |
| MMake-A-Wish Project |
But 31% | @Cre 45% | @Rea 27% | Bea 10% | @Str 28% | @The 32% | @Sam 17% | K-B 31% | J-R 29% |
Each cell is that team's chance to win the game (green = favored, red = underdog; "@" = away). Hover a cell for the opponent.