Projected Season

Projected Final Standings

#	Team	Now	Proj. Record	Proj. PF	Proj. PA	Playoffs	Champion
1	SSam's TownTurow	4-1	10-4	1,616	1,414	97.4%	20.6%
2	BButtHoleTrollsAlex	5-0	10-4	1,620	1,469	97.6%	25.5%
3	KK-Bo GhostsMaine	3-2	9-5	1,611	1,501	86.3%	15.2%
4	TThree Stripe LifeVit	3-2	8-6	1,721	1,549	87.8%	19.3%
5	BBeats by JJJoel	2-3	8-6	1,659	1,570	76.2%	10.9%
6	JJ-Rod the BodJarrod	3-2	7-7	1,477	1,488	49.6%	2.3%
7	CCream of the CropsBill	3-2	7-7	1,493	1,540	45.5%	2.8%
8	RReading Dwayne BoweRogers	2-3	6-8	1,525	1,553	28.8%	2.0%
9	SStraight Bums HomieWinges	2-3	6-8	1,490	1,520	18.1%	0.9%
10	TThe SharknadoRobbie	1-4	5-9	1,429	1,602	8.9%	0.7%
11	MMake-A-Wish ProjectScott	1-4	4-10	1,212	1,496	0.6%	0.0%
12	CCaptain ScurveMynatt	1-4	4-10	1,403	1,555	3.4%	0.1%

Ordered by projected wins; teams tied on projected wins are separated with the league's ESPN tiebreakers applied to the projected season (head-to-head from average simulated results when the teams play each other equally, then projected points for, then projected points against). Projected records are each team's average wins rounded to whole games, adjusted so the league's total wins equal its total losses.

Projected Playoffs

First round Week 15

3 K K-Bo Ghosts 65%

6 J J-Rod the Bod 35%

4 T Three Stripe Life 52%

5 B Beats by JJ 48%

Semifinals Week 16

1 S Sam's Town 45%

4 T Three Stripe Life 55%

2 B ButtHoleTrolls 48%

3 K K-Bo Ghosts 52%

Championship Week 17

3 K K-Bo Ghosts 47%

4 T Three Stripe Life 53%

The favorites-win storyline: projected top 6 seeded by projected finish, fixed bracket (no reseeding), each game going to the team whose lineup is more likely to outscore the other that week. Percentages are that game's win chance. Title odds below are the real picture.

Playoff Odds

#	Team	Make Playoffs	First-Round Bye	Reach Semis	Reach Final	Win Title
1	BButtHoleTrollsAlex	97.6%	68.0%	85.7%	48.3%	25.5%
2	SSam's TownTurow	97.4%	67.9%	85.3%	43.5%	20.6%
3	TThree Stripe LifeVit	87.8%	25.8%	62.7%	34.2%	19.3%
4	KK-Bo GhostsMaine	86.3%	17.1%	54.8%	29.3%	15.2%
5	BBeats by JJJoel	76.2%	12.9%	46.5%	21.1%	10.9%
6	CCream of the CropsBill	45.5%	3.3%	21.2%	6.9%	2.8%
7	JJ-Rod the BodJarrod	49.6%	3.6%	20.1%	7.3%	2.3%
8	RReading Dwayne BoweRogers	28.8%	0.9%	12.6%	5.0%	2.0%
9	SStraight Bums HomieWinges	18.1%	0.6%	6.7%	2.6%	0.9%
10	TThe SharknadoRobbie	8.9%	0.1%	3.6%	1.8%	0.7%
11	CCaptain ScurveMynatt	3.4%	0.1%	0.9%	0.2%	0.1%
12	MMake-A-Wish ProjectScott	0.6%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%

How this is calculated

• Every remaining regular-season game and the playoffs are played out thousands of times. Wins, losses, points and head-to-head so far are real.
• Each week, every team's lineup is its current ESPN roster with the best available player slotted at each position by that week's ESPN projection. Players on bye that week (or on IR) don't play.
• An empty lineup slot is filled with the average points per game at that position among players who have actually scored this year.
• A team's score each week is a random draw around its lineup's projected total, with the spread coming from typical weekly volatility for each position (about 20 points per team). Higher score wins.
• Rosters are frozen as of the last ESPN sync: no future waiver moves or trades, and no new injuries. Six teams make the playoffs, seeded by the ESPN tiebreakers, in a fixed bracket with the top two seeds getting byes.